RICS: Lower mortgage pushed up U.K.’s housing market demand and helped improve the house price balance from -41% to -30% in December
Australia lost a net 65.1K jobs in December – the second-largest loss since the 1993 recession – as 41,400 part-time jobs were offset by a 106,600 loss in full-time positions (15.4K forecast, 72.6K previous)
U.S. retail sales for December: 0.6% m/m (0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous); Core retail sales: 0.4% m/m (0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous)
USD/CAD 15-min Forex Chart by TradingView
NAHB: Falling mortgage rates have bumped up the U.S. builder confidence index for newly-built single-family homes from 37 to 44 in January
In an interview, ECB President Lagarde admitted that it’s “likely” that the central bank would raise its interest rates in the summer
A bit of profit-taking from the U.S. dollar’s gains likely contributed to USD/CAD turning lower from the 1.3540 intraweek resistance and dipping back to its sub-1.3500 levels.
It may have also helped the oil-related Canadian dollar that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are heating up, and that OPEC‘s latest outlook report was generally positive with 2024’s outlook unchanged and 2025’s figures estimated higher.
Fed’s January Beige Book report showed that “nearly all Districts cited one or more signs of a cooling labor market”
Japan’s industrial production was confirmed at -0.9% m/m in November as expected
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! ️
Until we see bearish fundamental and technical triggers, though, USD bulls may have slightly more reasons to keep USD/CAD around the 1.3500 area or higher.
We’ll know more during the U.S. session when Uncle Sam prints a bunch of mid-tier economic reports. Better-than-expected data might bring the sexy back for the Greenback and draw enough USD/CAD buyers into retesting the 1.3500 Pivot Point and psychological level.
USD/CAD is sporting a possible reversal pattern ahead of today’s mid-tier economic reports.
Japan’s core machinery orders fell more sharply than expected, down by 4.9% m/m in November and underscored the uncertainty of domestic and global outlook
Overlay of JPY vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView
On a technical basis, USD/CAD is now trading below both the 100 and 200 SMAs in the 15-minute time frame. In fact, the pair is sporting a possible Head and Shoulders bearish pattern with the S1 (1.3480) serving as the “neckline.”
JPY, in particular, saw some bullish momentum as the U.S. dollar gave up some of its pips while the markets are still kinda worried about global growth.
Melbourne Institute’s survey showed inflation expectations over the next 12 months from January were unchanged at 4.5%
With not a lot of new, game-changing themes in the markets, some traders had time to take profits from their intraweek positions.
Watch the newswires closely to see if USD/CAD will hit its potential support level and how the markets will react if it does dip to the inflection point!
منبع: https://www.babypips.com/news/daily-forex-watchlist-2024-01-18
Will we see a bearish breakout today? Or will USD/CAD extend its gains?
JPY is trading in the green across the board, with the biggest gains logged against USD and CHF while AUD and GBP are seeing the least pips gained against the safe haven.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
New Zealand’s food price index slowed by 0.1% m/m (-0.2% previous) in December
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out USD/JPY’s uptrend pullback ahead of the U.S. retail sales report. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!
Eurozone’s current account surplus for November: 24.6B EUR (30.9B EUR forecast, 32.3B EUR previous)
Price Action News
In its latest report, OPEC maintained its 2.2 million bpd oil demand for 2024, upped its 2025 demand outlook from 1.7 million bpd to 1.8 million bpd, and raised its 2025 GDP forecast from 2.6% to 2.8%
Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 3.9% as expected despite the labor market participation rate dipping from 67.3% to 67.1%
Is the dollar in for more losses against the Loonie?
U.S. industrial production for December: 0.1% m/m (-0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous)
SNB Chairman Jordan to give a speech at 10:30 am GMT
ECB meeting minutes at 12:30 pm GMT
FOMC member Bostic to give a speech at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. initial jobless claims at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. housing starts at 1:30 pm GMT
ECB President Lagarde to give a speech at 3:15 pm GMT
U.S. EIA crude oil inventories at 4:00 pm GMT
BusinessNZ manufacturing index at 9:30 pm GMT
Japan’s national core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
If the risk-friendly trading environment extends to the U.S. session trading, however, then we may see USD/CAD trade below the 1.3480 level that we’re watching.
