Despite the correction observed at the beginning of the month, the dollar has maintained positive dynamics and largely kept its position on the foreign exchange market. As some Fed officials have stated, if consumer inflation in the United States stabilizes above the target of 2.0% or continues to grow significantly, the leaders of the US Central Bank are ready to tighten monetary policy again.
At the same time, the US economy demonstrates much better growth rates and stability than other key economies of the world.
In the week of 13.05.2024 – 19.05.2024, market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics from New Zealand, China, the US, the UK, Australia, and the Eurozone.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be cancelled. GMT time
Monday, May 13
03:00 NZD Inflation expectations of the RB of New Zealand (for the 2nd quarter)
Inflation expectations in New Zealand. The indicator reflects consumer expectations regarding future annual inflation over the next 24 months. The higher the expectations, the more significant the effect they will have on the likelihood of a rate increase. A high value of the indicator is a positive factor for the NZD.
Previous values (in quarterly terms): +2.50% (in Q1 2024), +2.76%, +2.83%, +2.79%, +3.3%, +3, 62% (in Q4 2022).
Tuesday, May 14
06:00 GBP Report on the average wages of British over the last 3 months. Unemployment rate
Every month, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes a report on average wages covering the period for the last 3 months, with and without bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of the dynamics of changes in the level of wages of employees in the UK. Wages growth is a positive factor for GBP, while a low indicator is negative. Forecast: the May report suggests that average wages with bonuses rose again in the last 3 months calculated (January-March), after rising +5.6%, +5.6%, +5.8%, +6 .5%, +7.2%, +7.9%, +8.1%, +8.5%, +8.2%, +6.9%, +6.5%, +5.8 %, +5.9%, +6.0%, +6.5%, +6.%, +6.1%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, + 6.8%, +7.0%, +5.6%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2% in previous periods); wages without bonuses also increased after growth of +6.0%, +6.1%, +6.2%, +6.6%, +7.3%, +7.7%, +7.8%, + 7.8%, +7.8%, +7.3%, +7.2%, +6.7%, +6.6%, +6.6%, +6.7%, +6, 5%, +6.1%, +5.8%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2% , +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods). Thus, the data indicates continued growth in wages, which is positive for the pound. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast and/or previous values, the pound is likely to strengthen in the foreign exchange market. Data worse than forecast/previous values will have a negative impact on the pound.
Also at this time, unemployment data in the UK is published. It is expected that for 3 months (January-March) unemployment was at 4.2% (against 4.2%, 3.8%, 4.2%, 4.2%, 4.2%, 4.2% , 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 3.7%, 3.7%, 3.7% , 3.6%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.1% , 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.9%, 5.0% , 5.1%, 5.0% in previous periods).
Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has fallen steadily (from 8.0% in September 2012). This is a positive factor for the pound, while rising unemployment is a negative factor.
If data from the UK labor market turns out to be worse than the forecast and/or the previous value, the pound will be under pressure.
In any case, at the time of publication of data from the British labor market, volatility is expected to increase in the pound quotes and on the London Stock Exchange.
09:30 AUD Budget plan release
The Australian government will release its annual budget plan, which is likely to cause increased volatility in the Australian dollar.
12:30 USD Producer Price Index (PPI)
Producer Price Index estimates the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production. It is one of the leading indicators of inflation in the United States measuring the average change in wholesale producer prices.
As rising production costs increase wholesale prices, this ultimately increases consumer inflation. An increase in inflation (in normal economic conditions) usually puts upward pressure on the quotes of the national currency, since it implies a tighter monetary policy of the Central Bank.
Previous values: +0.2% (+1.6% in annual terms) in March, +0.6% (+1.6% in annual terms) in February, +0.3% (+0.9% in annual terms) in January 2024, 0% (+0.9% in annual terms) in December 2023, -0.5% (+1.3% in annual terms), +0.5% (+2 .2% in annual terms), +0.7% (+1.6% in annual terms), +0.3% (+0.8% in annual terms), +0.1% (+0.2 % in annual terms), -0.3% (+0.9% in annual terms), +0.2% (+2.3% in annual terms), -0.5% (+2.7% in annual terms), -0.1% (+4.9% in annual terms), +0.7% (+5.7% in annual terms) in January 2023.
If the data turns out to be better than expected (above forecast values), the dollar is likely to strengthen. And, conversely, data below the forecast and previous values will put pressure on the Fed when it makes its next decision on monetary policy in the direction of easing, which will have a negative impact on the dollar.
Wednesday, May 15
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP for the 1st quarter (2nd estimate)
GDP is considered an indicator of the overall health of the economy. A rising trend of the GDP indicator is considered positive for the EUR; a weak result weakens the EUR.
Recently, macro data from the Eurozone have been indicating a gradual recovery in the growth rate of the European economy after a sharp decline at the beginning of 2020.
Previous values: 0% (+0.1% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter of 2023, -0.1% (0% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +0.1% (+0. 5% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter, -0.1% (+1.0% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2023, 0% (+1.9% in annual terms) in 4- 1st quarter of 2022, growth of +0.7% (+4.0% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +0.8% (+4.1% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter of 2022 , +0.6% (+5.4% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter, +0.3% (+4.6% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter, +2.2% (+3 .9% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +2.2% (+14.3% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter and a fall of -0.3% (-1.3% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2021.
If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast and/or previous values, the euro may decline. Data better than forecast may strengthen the euro in the short term, although the European economy is still far from fully recovering even to pre-crisis levels.
Forecast for the 1st quarter: +0.3% (+0.4% in annual terms). The preliminary estimate was +0.3% (+0.4% in annual terms).
12:30 USD Retail sales. Retail control group. Consumer price indices
Retail sales. This Census Bureau report reflects the total sales of US retailers of all sizes and types. Changes in retail sales are a leading indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator and the data may be subject to significant revisions in the future. A high result strengthens the US dollar, a low result weakens it. A relative decrease in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar, while an increase in the indicator will have a positive impact on the USD. In the previous month (March), the indicator value was +0.7% (after +0.6% in February, -0.8% in January 2024, +0.6% in December 2023, +0.3%, -0.1% +0.7%, +0.6%, +0.7%, +0.2%, +0.3%, +0.4%, -1.0%, -0, 6%, +3.2%, -0.8%, -1.1%, +1.1%, -0.2%, +0.7%, -0.4%, +1.0% in previous months).
Retail sales are the leading indicator of consumer spending in the United States measuring changes in retail sales. Retail Control Group measure measures volume across the entire retail industry and is used to calculate price indices for most products. A strong result strengthens the US dollar, and conversely, a weak report weakens the dollar. A slight increase in indicators is unlikely to accelerate the growth of the dollar. The data is worse than the values of the previous period (+1.1%, 0%, -0.4% in January 2024, +0.8%, +0.4%, +0.2%, +0.6%, + 0.1%, +1.0%, +0.6%, +0.2%, +0.7%, -0.3%, +0.5%, +2.3%, -0, 3%, -0.5%, +0.4%, +0.5%, +0.4%, +1.1% in the previous months of 2022) could negatively impact the dollar in the short term.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) determines changes in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from the Core CPI to provide a more accurate estimate.
A high result strengthens the US dollar because the likelihood of a Fed rate hike increases, while a low result weakens it.
Previous values (annualized):
CPI: +3.5%, +3.2%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.1% +3.2%, +3.7%, +3.7%, + 3.2%, +3.0%, +4.0%, +4.9%, +5.0%, +6.0%, +6.4% (in January 2023),
Core CPI: +3.8%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.1%, +4.3% , +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.5%, +5.6% (in January 2023)
The presented data indicate a continuing slowdown in consumer inflation. It’s also well below 2022, when annual U.S. inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. On the other hand, US inflation is still well above the Fed’s target level of 2%, which will force US Central Bank officials to maintain interest rates at high levels.
If the data is confirmed or turns out to be weaker than forecast, the dollar will most likely react with a short-term decline. The stronger-than-expected data will strengthen the dollar, as it will increase the likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time.
23:50 JPY Japan GDP for the 1st quarter of 2024 (preliminary estimate)
GDP is considered an indicator of the overall health of a country’s economy and assesses its rate of growth or decline. The Gross Domestic Product report published by the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers expresses in monetary terms the total value of all final goods and services produced by Japan over a given period of time. An increasing trend in the GDP indicator is considered a positive factor for the national currency (yen), while a low result is considered negative (or bearish).
In the previous 4th quarter, the country’s GDP grew by +0.1% (+0.4% in annual terms) after +1.2% (+4.8% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter, +0. 9% (+2.7% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2023, zero growth (+0.1% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter of 2022, a decrease of -0.2% (-0 .8% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, growth of +0.9% (+3.5% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter, decline of -0.1% (-0.5% in annual terms in terms) in the 1st quarter of 2022, growth by +1.1% (+4.6% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter of 2021, decline by -0.9% (-3.6% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, growth in the 2nd quarter by +0.5% (+1.5% in annual terms) and a decline in the 1st quarter of 2021 by -1.0% (-3.7% in annual terms).
Data shows a bumpy recovery for Japan’s economy after it collapsed due to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
However, the forecast (preliminary estimate) implies that Japan’s GDP grew in the 1st quarter of 2024, which is a positive factor, especially for the Japanese stock market.
Data better than forecast will support the yen and Japanese stock indices, while data worse than forecast will put pressure on them.
Thursday, May 16
01:30 AUD Employment rate. Unemployment rate
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australians. The growth of the indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. A high value of the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD, and a low value is a negative factor. Previous indicator values: -6600 in March, +500 in February, -65100 in January 2024, +61500 in December 2023, +55000 in October, +6700 in September, +64900 in August, -14600 in July, +32600 in June, +75900 in May, -4300 in April, +53000 in March, +64600 in February, -11500 in January, +14600 in December, +64000 in November, +32200 in October, +900 in September, +33500 in August, -40900 in July, +88400 in June, +60600 in May, +4000 in April, +17900 in March, +77400 in February, +12900 in January 2022.
Also at the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate – an indicator that assesses the ratio of the unemployed population to the total number of working-age citizens. An increase in the indicator indicates a weak labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD.
Forecast: unemployment in Australia remained at its lowest levels in April at 3.8% (against 3.7% in March and February, 4.1% in January, 3.9% in December and November, 3.8% in October , 3.6% in September, 3.7% in August and July, 3.5% in June, 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April, 3.5% in March and February, 3.7 % in January, 3.5% in December, 3.4% in November and October, 3.5% in September and August, 3.4% in July, 3.5% in June, 3.9% in May and April, 4.0% in March and February, 4.2% in January), and employment increased.
RBA leaders have previously repeatedly stated that in addition to the situation in international trade, the Australian economy and the central bank’s monetary policy plans are influenced by the level of debt and household spending, the growth of workers’ wages, as well as the state of the country’s labor market. If the indicators turn out to be worse than forecast, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term. Better-than-forecast data will strengthen the AUD in the short term.
Friday, May 17
02:00 CNY Industrial production. Retail sales index
The China National Bureau of Statistics Industrial Production Data Report shows the output of Chinese industrial enterprises such as factories and production facilities. The growth of the indicator (industrial production) is a positive factor for the yuan, also indirectly signaling the possibility of accelerating inflation rates, which could put pressure on the People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy.
Conversely, a decrease in the indicator could have a negative impact on the yuan.
Previous values (annualized): +4.5%, +7.0%, +6.8%, +6.6%, +4.5%, +3.7%, +4.4%, +3.5%, +5.6%, +3.9%, +2.4% (in February 2023).
Retail Sales Index is published monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and measures total retail sales and cash receipts. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and economic well-being and reflects the health of the retail sector in the near term. A rise in the index is usually a positive for the CNY; a decrease in the indicator will have a negative impact on the CNY. Previous index value (annualized): +3.1%, +5.5%, +7.4%, +10.1%, +4.6%, +2.5%, +3.1% , +12.7%, +18.4%, +10.6%, +3.5%, -1.8%, -5.9% (after an increase of +8% in the last months of 2019 and a fall by -20.5% in February 2020).
The data indicate a continued recovery in this sector of the Chinese economy after a strong decline in February–March 2020. If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast or previous values, then the CNY may weaken, even sharply.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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منبع: https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/economic-calendar-for-the-week-13052024-19052024/
