Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (15.01.2024 – 21.01.2024)

2024.01.10 2024.01.10 Economic calendar for the week 15.01.2024 – 21.01.2024

Jana Kanehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/jana-kane/

Market participants continue to analyze the US inflation data published last week, as well as the US Department of Labor report published a week earlier with data for December. At the same time, a significant proportion of economists continue to believe that Fed officials will begin to cut interest rates in March. In total, 3 such cuts are expected this year, by 0.25% each. In the meantime, the dollar still lacks strong drivers to finally complete the downward correction that began in November last year. Neither are they expected next week, unless important\xa0statements are made about the economic or geopolitical situation in the world at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos (Switzerland), which will be held from January 15 to 19 and will be dedicated to “rebuilding trust in the conditions of uncertainty and rapid change” (ensuring security and cooperation in a fractured world, creating growth and jobs for a new era, artificial intelligence, long-term strategy on climate, nature and energy).

Investors will also pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics from Germany, the UK, Canada, China, Australia, and the US.

* during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be cancelled.

** GMT time

Monday, January 15

No important macro statistics scheduled to be released. The US celebrates a national holiday\xa0 - Martin Luther King\'s birthday. The country\'s stock exchanges and banks are closed. Trading volumes and traders’ activity will be low during the American trading session.

Tuesday, January 16

07:00 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany (final release)

This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.

Previous indicator values: +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9.2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8 .7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022 (in annual terms).

The data suggests inflation in Germany continues to slow, which in turn puts pressure on the ECB to ease its monetary policy. Data weaker than the previous value will likely have a negative impact on the euro. And, conversely, the resumption of inflation growth could provoke a strengthening of the euro. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. If the December data turns out to be better than previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term.

Forecast for December: +3.8% (with preliminary estimates and forecast +3.8%).

07:00 GBP Report on the average wages of the British over the last 3 months. Unemployment rate

Every month, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes a report on average wages covering the period for the last 3 months, with and without bonuses.

This report is a key short-term indicator of the dynamics of changes in the level of wages of employees in the UK. Wages growth is a positive factor for the GBP, while a low indicator is negative. Forecast: The January report suggests that average wages with bonuses rose again in the last 3 months (September-November), after rising +7.2%, +7.9%, +8.1%, +8 .5%, +8.2%, +6.9%, +6.5%, +5.8%, +5.9%, +6.0%, +6.5%, +6.% , +6.1%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, +6.8%, +7.0%, +5.6%, +4.8%, + 4.3%, +4.2% in previous periods); wages without bonuses also increased after growth of +7.3%, +7.7%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.3%, +7.2%, + 6.7%, +6.6%, +6.6%, +6.7%, +6.5%, +6.1%, +5.8%, +5.5%, +5, 2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods). Thus, the data indicates continued growth in wages, which is positive for the pound. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast and/or previous values, then the pound is likely to strengthen in the foreign exchange market. Data worse than forecast/previous values will have a negative impact on the pound.

Also at this time, unemployment data in the UK is published. It is expected that for 3 months (September-November) unemployment was at 4.2% (against 4.2%, 4.2%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0% , 3.8%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 3.7%, 3.7%, 3.7%, 3.6%, 3.5%, 3.6% , 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.5% , 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.9%, 5.0%, 5.1%, 5.0% in previous periods).

Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has fallen steadily (from 8.0% in September 2012). This is a positive factor for the pound; rising unemployment is a negative factor.

If data from the UK labor market turns out to be worse than the forecast and/or the previous value, then the pound will be under pressure.

In any case, at the time of publication of data from the British labor market, volatility is expected to increase in the pound quotes and on the London Stock Exchange.

13:30 CAD Consumer price indices in Canada

Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices of the corresponding basket of goods and services, and Core CPI does not take into account fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transport, and tobacco products. The inflation target for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1% - 3%. An increase in the CPI indicator is a harbinger of a rate increase and a positive factor for the CAD.

Previous values:

• \xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0 Consumer Price Index: +0.1% (+3.1% in annual terms), +0.1% (+3.1% in annual terms), -0.1% (+3.8% in annual terms), +0.4% (+4.0% in annual terms), +0.6% (+3.3% in annual terms), +0.1% (+2.8% in annual terms),
• \xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0 Core Consumer Price Index (from the Bank of Canada): +0.1% (+2.8% in annual terms), +0.3% (+2.7% in annual terms), -0.1% (+2 .8% in annual terms), +0.1% (+3.3% in annual terms), +0.5% (+3.2% in annual terms), -0.1% (+3.2 % in annual terms).

If the expected data turns out to be worse than previous values, this will negatively affect the CAD. Data better than previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar.

Wednesday, January 17

02:00 CNY China\'s GDP for the 4th quarter. Industrial production. Retail sales index

China\'s National Bureau of Statistics will release GDP growth data in the 4th quarter of 2023.

Chinese GDP is expected to grow again in 4Q 2023 after +1.3% (+4.9% in annual terms) in 3Q 2023, +0.8% (+6.3% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter of 2023, +2.2% (+4.5% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter, 0% (+2.9% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter of 2022, +3.9% (+3.9% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, -2.6% (+0.4% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter, +1.3% (+4 .8% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2022, +1.6% (+4.0% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter, by +0.2% (+4.9% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +1.3% (+7.9% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter and +0.6% (+18.3% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2021.

China is the largest buyer of raw materials and a supplier of a wide range of finished products to the global commodity market. China\'s economy is the second largest in the world after the US. Therefore, the publication of important macroeconomic indicators from China can have a strong impact on the entire financial market.

At the same time, China is the largest trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand and a buyer of raw materials from these countries.

Therefore, positive macro statistics from China may also have a positive impact on the quotes of these commodity currencies. If the expected data indicates a slowdown in one of the world\'s largest economies, this will be a negative factor for global stock markets and commodity currencies.

The China National Bureau of Statistics Industrial Production Data Report shows the output of Chinese industrial enterprises such as factories and production facilities. The growth of the indicator (industrial production) is a positive factor for the yuan, also indirectly signaling the possibility of accelerating inflation rates, which could put pressure on the People\'s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy.

Conversely, a decrease in the indicator could have a negative impact on the yuan.

Previous values (in annual terms): +6.6%, +4.5%, +3.7%, +4.4%, +3.5%, +5.6%, +3.9%, +2.4% (in February 2023).

Retail Sales Index is published monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and measures total retail sales and cash receipts. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and economic well-being and reflects the health of the retail sector in the near term. A rise in the index is usually a positive for the CNY; a decrease in the indicator will have a negative impact on the CNY. Previous index value (in annual terms): +10.1%, +4.6%, +2.5%, +3.1%, +12.7%, +18.4%, +10.6% , +3.5%, -1.8%, -5.9% (after an increase of +8% in the last months of 2019 and a fall of -20.5% in February 2020).

The data indicate a continued recovery in this sector of the Chinese economy after a strong decline in February–March 2020. If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast or previous values, then the CNY may weaken sharply.

07:00 GBP Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices for a group of goods and services included in the British consumer basket. The CPI index is a key indicator of inflation. Its publication causes active movement of the pound on the foreign exchange market, as well as the London Stock Exchange FTSE100 index.

In the previous reporting month (November), the growth of consumer inflation slowed to -0.2% (+3.9% in annual terms). However, data suggests inflation pressures are still high, which is likely to support the pound. An indicator value below the forecast/previous value could trigger a weakening of the pound, as low inflation will force the Bank of England to maintain a loose monetary policy.

Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) is published by the Office for National Statistics and measures changes in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services (excluding food and energy) over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the GBP, a negative result weakens it.

In November, Core CPI increased by +5.1% (in annual terms) after rising by +5.7%, +6.1%, +6.2% 3 months earlier. It is likely that the publication of the indicator will have a short-term positive impact on the pound if its value is higher than the forecast and previous values. An indicator value below the forecast and/or previous values may trigger a weakening of the pound.

13:30 USD Retail sales. Retail control group

Retail sales. This Census Bureau report reflects the total sales of US retailers of all sizes and types. Changes in retail sales are a leading indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator, and the data may be subject to significant revisions in the future. A high result strengthens the US dollar, a low result weakens it. A relative decrease in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar, while an increase in the indicator will have a positive impact on the USD. In the previous month (November), the indicator value was +0.3% (after -0.1% +0.7%, +0.6%, +0.7%, +0.2%, +0.3% , +0.4%, -1.0%, -0.6%, +3.2%, -0.8%, -1.1%, +1.1%, -0.2%, + 0.7%, -0.4%, +1.0% in previous months).

Retail sales are the leading indicator of consumer spending in the United States measuring changes in retail sales. The Retail Control Group measures volume across the entire retail industry and is used to calculate price indices for most products. A strong result strengthens the US dollar, and conversely, a weak report weakens the dollar. A slight increase in indicators is unlikely to accelerate the growth of the dollar. The data is worse than the values of the previous period (+0.4%, +0.2%, +0.6%, +0.1%, +1.0%, +0.6%, +0.2%, +0 .7%, -0.3%, +0.5%, +2.3%, -0.3%, -0.5%, +0.4%, +0.5%, +0.4 %, +1.1% in the previous months of 2022) could negatively impact the dollar in the short term.

Thursday, January 18

00:30 AUD Employment level. Unemployment rate

The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australians. The growth of the indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. A high value of the indicator is a positive factor for AUD, and a low value is a negative factor. Previous values of the indicator: +61500 in December, +55000 in October, +6700 in September, +64900 in August, -14600 in July, +32600 in June, +75900 in May, -4300 in April, +53000 in March, + 64600 in February, -11500 in January, +14600 in December, +64000 in November, +32200 in October, +900 in September, +33500 in August, -40900 in July, +88400 in June, +60600 in May, + 4000 in April, +17900 in March, +77400 in February, +12900 in January 2022.

Also at the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate - an indicator that assesses the ratio of the unemployed population to the total number of working-age citizens. An increase in the indicator indicates a weak labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD.

Forecast: unemployment in Australia remained at its lowest levels in December at 3.9% (against 3.9% in November, 3.7% in October, 3.6% in September, 3.7% in August and July, 3 .5% in June, 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April, 3.5% in March and February, 3.7% in January, 3.5% in December, 3.4% in November and October, 3.5% in September and August, 3.4% in July, 3.5% in June, 3.9% in May and April, 4.0% in March and February, 4.2% in January) , and employment levels rose again.

The RBA leaders have previously repeatedly stated that in addition to the situation in international trade, the Australian economy and the central bank\'s monetary policy plans are influenced by the level of debt and household spending, the growth of workers\' wages, as well as the state of the country\'s labor market. If the indicators turn out to be worse than forecast, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term. Better-than-forecast data will strengthen the AUD in the short term.

12:30 EUR Account of the ECB meeting on monetary policy

This document contains an overview of the current ECB policy with planned changes in the financial and monetary areas. The publication of this document may cause a surge in volatility in trading in the euro and on the European stock market.

Investors will be scrutinizing the minutes from the ECB\'s December meeting for further signals on the outlook for monetary policy.

Recently, weak macro data from the Eurozone have been indicating a slowdown in the European economy, which, against the background of international trade conflicts, puts pressure on the ECB in making decisions on interest rates despite the still high level of inflation.

Volatility in euro trading could rise sharply if the minutes contain unexpected statements or new information regarding the outlook for monetary policy.

Friday, January 19

07:00 GBP Retail sales

Retail Sales indicator tracks the level of consumer demand and is the most important indicator influencing the market and quotes of the national currency. It is also an indirect indicator of inflation, thus being of interest both to the country’s central bank and to market participants.

The Retail Sales Report is produced by the UK Office for National Statistics. Changes in retail sales are generally considered an indicator of consumer spending. In general, a high indicator is a positive factor for the GBP, while a low value is a negative factor.

Previous index values: +1.3%, 0%, -1.1%, +0.4%, -1.1%, +0.6%, +0.1%, +0.5%, - 1.2%, +1.0%, +1.3 (in January 2023) and +0.1%, -2.5%, -1.0%, -1.3%, -3.1 %, -1.6%, -2.3%, -3.4%, -3.9%, -3.5%, -5.2 (in January 2023) in annual terms.

15:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary release)

This indicator reflects the confidence of American consumers in the country\'s economic development. A high level indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation. Previous indicator values: 69.7 in December, 61.3 in November, 63.8 in October, 68.1 in September, 69.5 in August, 71.6 in July, 64.4 in June, 59.2 in May, 63.5 in April, 62.0 in March, 67.0 in February, 64.9 in January 2023, 59.7 in December, 56.8 in November, 59.9 in October, 58.6 in September, 58.2 in August, 51.5 in July, 50.0 in June, 58.4 in May, 65.2 in April, 59.4 in March, 62.8 in February, 67.2 in January 2022 of the year. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the USD, and a decrease in the value will weaken the dollar. Data indicate an uneven recovery of this indicator, which is negative for the USD. Data worse than previous values may have a negative impact on the dollar in the short term.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode