The Australian dollar steadies as the RBA may restart its monetary tightening. Australia’s economy has so far shown resilience at a time when the RBA would rather see a bit more weakness. Inflation has remained stubbornly high and a recent flare-up in property prices led traders to dial up the odds of another rate hike at the November meeting. Even the IMF has weighed in by suggesting that more tightening could be done to effectively curb inflation. However, a lack of overall risk appetite and weak Chinese economic data may keep the aussie in check in case of a rebound. 0.6280 is a critical floor and 0.6650 a key resistance. UKOIL steadies as demand worries ease
The S&P 500 regained lost ground fueled by investors’ optimism that rate hikes were over. Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a balanced tone at the November meeting with a remark that the central bank would proceed carefully, a comment dovish enough for market participants to believe that the peak rate has been reached. Even though Powell insisted on keeping options open for a hike, it rather sounded like a formality to not allow the market overshoot than a firm commitment. Despite a mixed bag of corporate earnings, falling bond yields may boost demand for riskier equities. 4400 is the first hurdle to clear and 4100 a key support.
Test your forex and CFD trading strategy with Orbex
The euro struggles as economic data across the euro zone remain gloomy. Both GDP and manufacturing activity showed a contraction in the third quarter, but the good news is that inflation is also falling fast, suggesting that the ECB’s hard pill of 10 consecutive hikes is working its magic. The single currency may benefit from this balancing factor, meaning that the central bank would not risk pushing into a recession. However, a larger bounce may depend on the dollar effect after the Fed left rates on hold. As traders expect no more US hikes into next year, the pair could climb above 1.0820 with 1.0450 as a close support. AUDUSD rebounds on hike speculation
Jing-Ren has extensive experience in currency and commodities trading. He began his career in metal sales and trading at Societe Generale in London. He went on to work as a senior analyst within the FX industry where he developed and refined his own trading and risk management strategies. Having a solid understanding of market dynamics, he founded his own research and asset management services and works with Orbex to provide timely market commentary on the global financial markets.
EURUSD bounces as ECB may not push further
Read More
منبع: https://www.orbex.com/blog/en/2023/11/the-week-ahead-global-pause
