USDJPY Forecast for 2024, 2025-2030 and Beyond

2024.05.31 2024.05.31
USDJPY Forecast for 2024, 2025-2030 and Beyond

Jana Kanehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/jana-kane/

The USDJPY is one of the most traded currency pairs in Forex. It’s popular with both traders and investors. The pair’s rate is determined by the economic situation in the USA and Japan and by global financial and political developments. Most experts predict the USDJPY will grow soon.

This article analyzes the USDJPY pair and expert opinions regarding its exchange rate in the next few years and beyond. These insights will help you develop a profit-yielding trading strategy.

Highlights and Key Points: USD JPY Forecast 2024-2030

• Price today: Trading around 157.295
• Forecasts for 2024 indicate that quotes will recover, ranging from ¥160 to ¥169. Buyers aim at the level of 169 amid expectations of a growing interest rate differential between the Fed and the BoJ.
• The long-term outlook for 2025 reflects a gradual strengthening of the dollar. The pair may rise to ¥179 by 2025 and break above ¥230 by the decade’s end. Periods of the yen’s strengthening may lead to temporary pullbacks. The USDJPY is expected to grow moderately in the long term. However, unpredictable fluctuations cannot be ruled out.

USD JPY Price Today Coming Days and Week

When forecasting the USD/JPY exchange rate in the upcoming days and weeks, it’s crucial to consider economic indicators from the U.S. and Japan, such as interest rates, inflation data, and GDP figures. Central bank policies, particularly from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, will significantly influence the rate. Additionally, global economic events and geopolitical developments that affect market sentiment and risk appetite should be monitored. Technical analysis, including trend lines and volume indicators, can provide further insights into potential currency movements. Understanding these factors will aid in predicting the USD/JPY’s short-term direction.

Analysts’ USD JPY Projections for 2024

Let’s take a look at USD JPY’s expert forecasts for 2024.

LongForecast

Price range for 2024: ¥154.00 – ¥177.00 (as of May 31, 2024).

LongForecast predicts that the USD/JPY rate will range from 154 to 177 yen per USD, with quotes growing to the high of 177 by October and ending the year at 165. The forecast suggests a gradual strengthening of the dollar against the yen despite the expected volatility within the price range.

WalletInvestor

Price range for 2024: ¥156.316 – ¥165.342 (as of May 31, 2024).

Analysts at WalletInvestor expect the USD/JPY rate to range from ¥156.316 to ¥165.342 in 2024. In June 2024, the pair will trade at 156.316 and close the year at 165.342. Based on a technical analysis model, the outlook expects the dollar to grow against the Japanese yen within the estimated range throughout 2024.

USD JPY Technical Analysis

To conduct a technical analysis of the USDJPY currency pair, we can use various indicators each of which will help identify trends, support and resistance levels, and entry and exit points. Here are some popular indicators:

1. Moving Averages. The simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA) help to smooth out price fluctuations and determine a trend direction. As a rule, 100 and 200 days are the periods used for long-term analysis, and 20 days/50 days are used for short-term analysis.
2. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the speed and change of price movements, helping to identify overbought and oversold zones. A reading of 70 usually indicates overbought levels, and a reading of 30 determines oversold areas.
3. Bollinger Bands consist of a moving average and two standard deviations above and below that average. They help determine market volatility and potential pivot points.
4. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is used to identify changes in a trend’s strength, direction, momentum, and duration.
5. Stochastic helps identify overbought and oversold zones and potential trend reversal points. Values above 80 and below 20 indicate that the asset is overbought and oversold, respectively.
6. Fibonacci ratios help determine possible support and resistance levels based on previous price movements. Key levels: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.
7. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a technical indicator used to determine the strength of a market trend.

These tools can be used separately or combined to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the USDJPY currency pair.

USDJPY Forecast For Next Three Months

To make a 3-month forecast for the USDJPY pair, we will use the daily timeframe (D1) that will allow us to parse the chart in detail and identify long-term trends in price changes.

The chart shows that the price has evolved in an ascending channel since January 2023. However, a false breakout of its upper boundary occurred at the end of April, and the price dropped to the previous key resistance of 152.00, which may indicate the sellers’ increased activity and a potential trend reversal.

The MACD indicator’s signal lines are directed downward, while histogram volumes are below zero, gradually approaching it.

Stochastic is in the neutral zone. These oscillator readings point to a weak signal for a further price decline.

Long-Term USDJPY Analysis for 2024

We will explore the weekly and monthly charts to make a yearly forecast for the USDJPY.

The price is in an ascending channel on the weekly chart, indicating a continued upward trend. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, with its lines directed upward. This points to strong upward momentum and confirms the current trend.

+DI above ADX means that the strength of the uptrend (+DI) is more than the current trend’s strength measured by ADX. This indicates the uptrend’s predominance and strengthening. -DI below ADX indicates that the strength of the downtrend (-DI) is less than the current trend’s strength measured by ADX. The downtrend is weaker, which further confirms the uptrend’s strength.

The MA-50 is above the MA-100, which is also a bullish signal indicating that the faster SMA is above the slower SMA, and the trend is upward.

The ‎Cup and Handle pattern is formed in the monthly chart, suggesting a bullish signal and potential uptrend continuation once the “handle” is completed. The pattern often forms before the price starts growing drastically, particularly if the handle is broken amid increased volumes.

USDJPY Long-Term Trading Plan 

Based on the technical analysis, the USDJPY pair can be expected to correct to 152.00 in the coming months. As the long-term uptrend continues, we can consider long-term longs from 152.000 after reaching the target levels.

• Sell entry level — 155.00, Stop-Loss — 157.00;
• Three-month target: 152.00;
• One-year targets:
  • Sell target: 152.000.
  • Then, the trend may reverse up, and buy targets will be 156.00, 160.00, 165.00, and 170.00.

Alternative entry points (set a pending stop order if the price starts growing):

• Buy Stop — 160.00, Stop-Loss — 155.00;
• Three-month target: 165.00;
• One-year targets: 170.000 and 175.00.

USD JPY Forecast for 2025

Let’s take a look at USD JPY’s expert forecasts for 2025.

LongForecast

Price range for 2025: ¥165 – ¥191 (as of May 31, 2024).

LongForecast predicts the USDJPY will start growing from 165 in January 2025 to gradually reach 176 by December. Based on fundamental economic and political analysis, the forecast reflects a moderate strengthening of the US dollar against the yen.

WalletInvestor

Price range for 2025: ¥164.391-179.533 (as of May 31, 2024).

Experts at WalletInvestor estimate that the USDJPY will steadily grow from 164.391 in January to 179.533 in December 2025. Based on a technical analysis model, the forecast expects the dollar to strengthen against the yen within the estimated range throughout 2025.

Long-Term USD JPY Forecast for 2026

Let’s take a look at USD JPY’s expert forecasts for 2026.

LongForecast

Price range for 2026: ¥176-208 (as of May 31, 2024).

LongForecast estimates that USDJPY will rise from about ¥176 in January to about ¥204 by December 2026. Based on fundamental economic and political analysis, this outlook indicates a further strengthening of the dollar against the yen in 2026.

WalletInvestor

Price range for 2026: ¥179.54 – ¥194.682 (as of May 31, 2024).

WalletInvestor predicts a consistent monthly strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen in 2026. The USD/JPY will start the year 2026 at 179.54, steadily rising to 194.682 by year-end. The forecast suggests the dollar’s consistent growth against the yen. Monthly increases will range from 0.21% to 1.08%, with some volatility observed.

Long-Term USD JPY Forecast for 2027–2028

Let’s take a look at USD JPY’s expert forecasts for 2027–2028 (as for February 20, 2024).

LongForecast

Price range: ¥204.00 – ¥225.00 (as of May 31, 2024).

LongForecast estimates that the USD/JPY will trade at around ¥209 per dollar in January 2027, rising to ¥217 by January 2028. This indicates a general tendency for the dollar to consolidate against the yen between 2027 and 2028. However, monthly price fluctuations should be expected within a narrowing range.

WalletInvestor

Price range: ¥195.915 – ¥226.488 (as of May 31, 2024).

WalletInvestor predicts that the USD/JPY rate will grow in the long term. By the end of 2027, the rate will be around 211 JPY per 1 USD. The price is forecast to increase slightly from ¥211.197 to ¥211.644 by January 2028.

Recent Price History of the USD JPY Pair

The USD/JPY exchange rate has seen significant two-way volatility over the past decade, driven by shifting macro trends and central bank policies. After years trading around 80-85, USD/JPY plunged to 76 in early 2012 on aggressive BOJ easing, then surged to 125 by 2015 as easing policies weakened the yen. Heightened uncertainty in 2015-2016 triggered some regaining of haven yen strength. The 2017-2018 period saw stability around 110-115, but escalating US-China tensions again boosted the yen in 2019, pushing USD/JPY below 109.

Aggressive 2020 pandemic easing caused whipsaws between 111 down to 103, before diverging Fed and BOJ policies helped a rebound back above 110. In 2023, further policy divergence could lend some dollar support, but global recession worries might spur bouts of yen safety buying. After recent 145-150 range trading, uncertainty persists on risks of fluctuations amid shifting growth and risk sentiment this year. But occasional dollar strength is possible on widening rate differentials.

Which Factors Impact USD JPY Forecast?

Here’s what determines the future price movements:

• Monetary Policy Divergence: The differences in policy between the US Federal Reserve (e.g., interest rate hikes) and the Bank of Japan (e.g., quantitative easing) significantly affect USD/JPY exchange rates.
• Global Growth Differentials: The relative economic performance of the US and Japan influences the pair; stronger US growth can boost the USD, while weaker data can decrease its value against the JPY.
• Commodity Prices: As Japan imports significant amounts of oil, lower crude oil prices tend to strengthen the yen, and vice versa.
• Equity Market Trends: Japanese and global stock market fluctuations affect investor risk appetite, influencing USD/JPY volatility.
• Government Rhetoric/Intervention: Statements or actions by government officials regarding currency markets can cause abrupt changes in USD/JPY rates.

Is USD/JPY Still a Good Investment?

Assessing whether USD/JPY is a good investment reveals a complex situation. Influenced by divergent monetary policies, global economic uncertainty, and shifting risk dynamics, the currency pair is currently trapped in a tight trading range. This ambiguity makes it a challenging environment for long-term investors, as predicting its direction is difficult due to various influencing factors like Treasury yields and commodity prices.

While opportunities influence experienced short-term traders, the inherent volatility and unpredictability of USD/JPY make it less suitable for long-term buy-and-hold strategies. The likelihood of continued rangebound movement, with the potential for sudden shifts, requires investors to be vigilant and responsive to influencers.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode