بروزرسانی: 10 اردیبهشت 1404
Weekly Market Outlook (30-03 November)
US ADP
Friday
The BoJ isexpected to keep everything unchanged with rates at -0.10% and YCC to targetthe 10yr JGBs at 0% with a +/-50 bps soft cap and 1% hard cap. There is somespeculation about a tweak of the YCC policy though. The central bank is also expectedto raise its inflation forecasts to show prices exceeding its 2% target for2023 and 2024.
US Jobless Claims
Thursday
Canada Unemployment Rate
TheUS Jobless Claims lastweek missed expectations with Continuing Claims now showing a clear upwardtrend, which suggests that workers are finding it harder to get a job afterbeing laid off. This week the consensus sees Initial Claims at 210K vs. 210Kprior, while Continuing Claims are expected at 1795K vs. 1790K prior.
TheFed is expected to keep the FFR unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. The market doesn’texpect the Fed to raise rates anymore and sees the central bank cutting inmid-2024. The focus will be more on the guidance for the December meeting, butwe are unlikely to see any pre-commitment as the FOMC remains in a “wait andsee” mode. Expect to hear the usual “data-dependent”, “proceeding carefully”and “resilient economy”, but this meeting is likely to be as “boring” as the Julyone.
US Job Openings
US ISM Services PMI
منبع: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-30-03-november-20231029/
TheUS Consumer Confidence is seen ticking lower to 100 vs. 103 prior. The ConferenceBoard survey is more weightedtowards the labour market, while the University of Michigan survey is moreabout households’ financial outlook. The labour market details have beenshowing some weakness lately, which is something that we’ve been also seeingvia rising continuing claims.
TheUS ADP has a poor track record in forecasting the US NFP, but it’s still amarket moving report, especially now that the labour market data is at the topof the market’s attention. The consensus sees 150K jobs added in October vs.89K in the priormonth.
Federal Reserve
BoJ
TheEurozone CPI Y/Y is expected to fall to 3.2% vs. 4.3% prior,while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.2% vs. 4.5% prior. The ECBhas paused its tightening cycle at the last meeting with the market expectingthe central bank to remain on hold into the mid-2024 when it sees the ECB startingthe rate cut cycle.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Switzerland CPI YoY
TheUS ISM Services PMI is expected to tick lower to 53.0 vs. 53.6 prior. The recent S&PGlobal Services PMI beat expectations with the Services index returninginto expansion. The good news is that the price pressures continue to ease.
TheUS NFP is expected to show 172K jobs added vs. a whooping 336K seen in the priormonth, and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 3.8%. The AverageHourly Earnings Y/Y are expected to cool to 4.0% vs. 4.2% prior, while the M/Mfigure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior.
TheSwiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.8% vs. 1.7% prior,while the M/M reading is seen at 0.1% vs. -0.1% prior. The Switzerlandinflation has been in the SNB’s 0-2% target on both the headline and coremeasures for quite some time already.
TheUS ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.0 vs. 49.0prior. The recent S&PGlobal Manufacturing PMI beat expectations with the index printing at 50.0 asthe sector rebounded from the 2022 recession. Moreover, price pressures continueto ease, which is a good development for the Fed.
UPCOMING EVENTS:
- Monday: Australia Retail Sales.
- Tuesday: Japan Jobs data, Japan Retail Sales and Industrial Production, Chinese PMI, BoJ Policy Decision, Swiss Retail Sales, Eurozone GDP and CPI, Canada GDP, US ECI, US Consumer Confidence, New Zealand Jobs data.
- Wednesday: Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ADP, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings, FOMC Policy Decision.
- Thursday: Swiss CPI, US Challenger Job Cuts, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims.
- Friday: Chinese Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada Jobs data, US NFP, US ISM Services PMI.
US Consumer Confidence
Tuesday
BoE