Social media engagement heavily favors Trump
Readers might also remember I predicted three big events for 2020 in my Coronavirus article I posted in March 2020, two of which have come true so far, with one pending.
We have a famous Gallop poll that reported 56% of Americans say they are better off financially under Trump than under Obama/Biden, the highest number recorded ever for that poll. This just can’t be ignored especially when you consider we are in the middle of a Pandemic and an economic slow down. The ‘are you better off poll’ has been a major predictor of US election results in recent years.
Trump is winning over many African American and Hispanic voters.
Using my own network as an initial example here. I have a business associate in the USA whom is a Trump supporter living in the swing state of Michigan. He will not put up a Trump 2020 sign or flag in the front yard and will not wear a MAGA hat and he won’t put a Trump/Pence bumper sticker on pick up truck. If a pollster calls, texts or emails him, he won’t reveal he is voting for Trump or just won’t respond at all. The reason he explains is due to most of the Democrats being so extremely hateful of Trump and his supporters, especially since the protesting and riots started, he says he risks being attacked and judged within his local community. My friend here is is not alone, with an estimated 25% of Trump supporters never revealing their political views to people they don’t know or trust. As I stated earlier, The Trafalgar Group pollsters understand this Shy Trump voter which is why they have developed a special process to determine if a person is voting for Trump, far different to almost every other pollster out there. If people aren’t telling pollsters they are voting for Trump, it’s no wonder the polls were skewed in 2016 and are be skewed again in 2020.
Most Presidents typically get re-elected for a 2nd term. It’s very hard to win an election against the Incumbent president.
Trump has true ‘love of country’, and a lot of the country loves him back, despite what the media says. Drive anywhere in most of the USA’s 50 states right now (except California and New York), and you are far more likely to see Trump signs and flags lining freeways, streets and front yards. Attend a Trump campaign rally, a presidential motorcade drive by, an air force one landing or take off, a car or boat parade or anything involving President Trump that’s an ‘in person’ event where fans can gather and cheer, and the attendance numbers are staggering in size. These are the largest numbers of support on the ground for any Presidential candidate in US election history. Biden doesn’t even make a dent on Trump’s ground support and the enthusiasm, with a handful of voters turning out for any of Biden’s campaign events. We are talking about completely different stratospheres of enthusiasm between the candidates here. Those that follow elections know that Enthusiasm wins elections. Trump has a truly unshakeable supporter base and as of Today’s polling numbers has mid 90% approval rating within the Republican party which is probably the highest on record.
The Trafalgar Group pollsters had been incredibly accurate in 2016 election using a state by state electoral college prediction model with unique questions and unique collection methods, proving far superior to other pollsters. They are known for apply a different polling method designed to target silent Trump voters who are usually too afraid to give an opinion to a stranger out of fear of being attacked or trolled. One question they ask voters is ‘Who is your Neighbor voting for’ which has a very high level of success in predicting US elections as it turns out, and apparently the answer to this question is overwhelmingly as ‘Trump’. They are also known for connecting with African American and Hispanic voters in a unique way to create a more ‘ real world ‘ sample size of the American voter demographic in each state. For 2020 Trafalgar are again predicting the US electoral college will be won by Trump, and they are currently reporting an accelerating move to Trump in key swing states (US states that historically can change from Democrat to Republican or vice versa) in the closing stages of the race. Trafalgar poll data is often completely different to mainstream poll data you might see on TV or mainstream websites. All we can go off is who was most accurate previously, and Trafalgar have that edge in both 2016 main election and the 2018 mid term election, so they should have our attention.
The Statistical Metrics:
Nial Fuller
Gold Coast, Australia
25/10/2020
Americans prefer law and order and safety.
Biased left media actually strengthens Trump’s support base and has the opposite effect to what is intended.
We should firstly remember Joe Biden has ran for president 2 times before and failed, this will be his 3rd attempt! Biden’s boring persona, old age and terrible track record during his 47 years in US politics really does make him a very weak candidate. He has no exciting plans or tag lines for his policies that have caught on. This contrasts with Trump’s massive ego, charisma and strong presence (Many Americans relate to and are drawn to his persona, believe me). He has a major skill in branding his plans and policies into catchy tag lines such as ‘Build a Wall’ and ‘Drain The Swamp’ and more recently ‘Fill That Seat’ and ‘The Cure Can Not Be Worse Than The Problem’ etc. This combination of personality and memorable tag lines, works together to excite his base and recruits new voters to his bas who might not have noticed him otherwise.
It’s no secret that the big Media players and Social media giants are incredibly left wing biased and are virtual extensions of the Democratic party, with a goal of controlling a left wing narrative online. Go to your Twitter news feed or Google news feed and this bias becomes obvious. Go to the CNN, MSNBC or ABC website and then compares those 3 media outlets to the FOX News website, and you will clearly see the left wing media treats Trump with extreme bias and simply doesn’t cover any positive stories in order to prevent Democrats reading anything positive about the president. The bias is staggering, with around 90% of all news about Trump being negative on left wing media platforms. The problem for the Democrats is that when you have 90% of news bashing a person that almost 50% of American people voted for, love and support, you create a massive social a retaliation and movement which manifests in even stronger support for Trump over time. Despite what some say, there are a large number of Americans that are smart enough to see what is going on, and many make a stand against this unfair censorship and suppression of the truth by voting for Trump.
Americans want freedom from Lock downs, masks and restrictions.
From the above sources, we can see the Polling evidence shows momentum for Trump late into the race, just like 2016. Keep an eye on the Rasmussen Daily Presidential approval rating poll and Trafalgar state by state polling data closer to election day.
President Trumps social media account’s engagement drastically dwarfs his opponent Biden’s accounts by several hundred percent. Trump has omnipresence online, he is the topic of the minute, the hour, the day, the week, the month, he is always everywhere. The broader right leaning Republican and conservative social media influencer accounts have around 10 times (yes TEN times) the social sharing and virality that the Democratic left leaning social media influencer accounts have. As an example, if you go to YouTube to watch a video with anything about Trump (that isn’t CNN or MSNBC), you will usually always see substantially higher ‘thumbs up votes’ than on a video about Biden. Trump’s support is hiding in plain sight online, just as they where in 2016, but now it’s becoming more obvious. Professor Bela Stantic of Griffith University Australia, (Nick named ‘Nostradamus of the 21st Century’) has accurately predicted 3 major long shot political votes in recent years using social media analysis. He predicted Trumps 2016 win, UK’s Brexit, The 2019 Australian election and many more. He now predicts Trump will win 2020. You can watch a recent interview with Professor Bela Stantic’s 2020 US election prediction here.
New Republican registration numbers are up
The Silent Trump voter is a very real thing.
Does anybody believe a person that just returned to work after XYZ months earning zero income, is going to go out and vote for Biden who wants to lock them in their house, force every person in state to wear a mask, and to put more restrictions on them again ? Trump understands the economy and he understands how businesses and workers are feeling right now. He will play this to his advantage with frustrated voters who want to get on with their life, get back to work, or re start a business.
Of the forty five presidents who have held office, only ten presidents have failed to win re-election for a second term, IF they have attempted to run for a second term. Some may argue the recession changes these statistics for re-election of the incumbent president, but when you look more closely, the stats on re-election of a President who won an election (as opposed to being promoted from vice president to president), are actually closer to 50/50 during a pandemic, so there is no statistical bias to note.
We all know 99% of the polling predictions were wrong in 2016, and many contrarians now believe they are wrong again in 2020 (including me). As of today, the few polls I know of that correctly predicted the 2016 election are also predicting a Trump win in 2020.
Trump has the incumbent edge:
Many of my long time readers will remember my wager on Trump to win the election in 2016 which returned over 500%, a giant trade and a result that most people around me said could never happen. Fast forward to 2020, and those same people are telling me Trump can’t win again.
With the above said, my Prediction is that TRUMP will win the 2020 US Election with around 270 to 310 electoral college votes. With the current odds on Trump offered by bookmakers at $2.80 or 9/5 (almost a 2 to 1 risk reward), the opportunity looks compelling. Given my conviction on the outcome, I have wagered a high 6 figure sum at average odds of around $2.60. If successful, my total winnings on both Trump wagers across 2016 and 2020 will exceed $600k AUD. If you do intend to take a view on the 2020 election via the stock market or via wagering markets, please do your own research first and be smart with what capital you are risking.
Trump’s supporters and enthusiasm are completely unmatched.
Good luck to Trump on November 3rd, and good luck to those banking on the outcome.
It’s very interesting to note that in the three times in history that America has faced a pandemic, recession and civil unrest during an election year, the incumbent political party has had a 3-0 winning record in those elections.
Biden is a weak candidate
Tell Me Who You Think Will Win The 2020 US Election and Why ? – Leave A Comment Below. (Note: No political trolling will be permitted in the comments, relevant and productive comments are welcome)
منبع: https://www.learntotradethemarket.com/nial-fullers-blog/why-trump-wins-2020-election
Trump is also pro fossil fuels, pro oil and gas, pro coal, and pro fracking. He has convinced voters that without him they will lose these industries and jobs in certain states. During a recession, this is a very real and very serious issue to most voters in the relevant states where these industries employ millions of people and are the oxygen to these states economies. It’s these policies that that will definitely earn Trump a majority of votes in many of these impacted states come election day.