Trump is Anti Lock Down and Anti Masks, and his base and many others agree with him on these points, claiming the right to freedom of choice. Biden is Pro Lock downs, Pro restrictions and Pro masks.
Trump is winning over many African American and Hispanic voters.
Trump is also pro fossil fuels, pro oil and gas, pro coal, and pro fracking. He has convinced voters that without him they will lose these industries and jobs in certain states. During a recession, this is a very real and very serious issue to most voters in the relevant states where these industries employ millions of people and are the oxygen to these states economies. It’s these policies that that will definitely earn Trump a majority of votes in many of these impacted states come election day.
We should firstly remember Joe Biden has ran for president 2 times before and failed, this will be his 3rd attempt! Biden’s boring persona, old age and terrible track record during his 47 years in US politics really does make him a very weak candidate. He has no exciting plans or tag lines for his policies that have caught on. This contrasts with Trump’s massive ego, charisma and strong presence (Many Americans relate to and are drawn to his persona, believe me). He has a major skill in branding his plans and policies into catchy tag lines such as ‘Build a Wall’ and ‘Drain The Swamp’ and more recently ‘Fill That Seat’ and ‘The Cure Can Not Be Worse Than The Problem’ etc. This combination of personality and memorable tag lines, works together to excite his base and recruits new voters to his bas who might not have noticed him otherwise.
Americans prefer law and order and safety.
Biden is really a placeholder for his vice president candidate Kamala Harris who plans to take over the presidency during his first or second term. Make no mistake, the American voters are wary of this Trojan horse play by the Democrats who want a far left President who believes in a socialistic economy, and they know if they vote for Biden, it will be Kamala Harris’s policies that will be rolled out in the end when she eventually takes office. We should also remember that vice president candidate Kamala Harris received poor numbers from her own party in her recent bid to become the Democratic Presidential nominee.
Despite the hysterical left wing media constantly bombarding us with Covid-19 fear mongering and ridiculing anybody who isn’t wearing a mask or standing 2 meters apart, there are increasing numbers of American voters from all parties who have lost patience with the Pandemic and the social restrictions it has brought with it. American voters are smart enough to know Trump is trying to balance the Pandemic along with the Economy, and they can see the strategy is working because people are starting to resume work and get back to some kind of ‘new normal’. Ultimately without the economy and jobs there is going to be nothing left to save, and that has been Trumps core message “The cure can’t be worse than the problem”. Even if you disagree with this statement, we all know deep in our hearts that most of us are not going to survive much longer mentally with these virus related restrictions, it simply has to end. The world health organization just admitted lock downs and over the top restrictions are not working and do more damage to people than the virus itself long term. So as it turns out, Trump was right to refuse to keep strict lock downs and restrictions in place across the country and to start opening up the country quickly, going against advice from many advisors. Anybody watching closely know he’s the reason the USA economy is bouncing back faster than anticipated. I think this a huge win for Trump overall on the Covid-19 virus crisis.
Due to his positive track record with African and Hispanic American voters in his first few years of office, there has been a big shift in the African American and Hispanic vote for 2020. A recent survey showed African American voters approval rating for President Trump has soared from 20% to 45%. You also have to look at how many African American celebrities have recently come out to support Trump and educate Black voters why Trump is a better choice for them going forward. Actor ‘ICE Cube’ favors Trump because they are working on the ‘Platinum Plan’ together which will benefit the Black community. We then have Musician ’50 Cent’ endorsing Trump, stating ‘ I don’t want to be 20 cent ‘, citing Biden’s plans to raise taxes. What African American is every going to forget Biden’s famous words “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” These extra votes from Black voters and Hispanic voters is something that could help take Trump over the top in key states.
From the above sources, we can see the Polling evidence shows momentum for Trump late into the race, just like 2016. Keep an eye on the Rasmussen Daily Presidential approval rating poll and Trafalgar state by state polling data closer to election day.
President Trumps social media account’s engagement drastically dwarfs his opponent Biden’s accounts by several hundred percent. Trump has omnipresence online, he is the topic of the minute, the hour, the day, the week, the month, he is always everywhere. The broader right leaning Republican and conservative social media influencer accounts have around 10 times (yes TEN times) the social sharing and virality that the Democratic left leaning social media influencer accounts have. As an example, if you go to YouTube to watch a video with anything about Trump (that isn’t CNN or MSNBC), you will usually always see substantially higher ‘thumbs up votes’ than on a video about Biden. Trump’s support is hiding in plain sight online, just as they where in 2016, but now it’s becoming more obvious. Professor Bela Stantic of Griffith University Australia, (Nick named ‘Nostradamus of the 21st Century’) has accurately predicted 3 major long shot political votes in recent years using social media analysis. He predicted Trumps 2016 win, UK’s Brexit, The 2019 Australian election and many more. He now predicts Trump will win 2020. You can watch a recent interview with Professor Bela Stantic’s 2020 US election prediction here.
Most Presidents typically get re-elected for a 2nd term. It’s very hard to win an election against the Incumbent president.
It’s very interesting to note that in the three times in history that America has faced a pandemic, recession and civil unrest during an election year, the incumbent political party has had a 3-0 winning record in those elections.
Professor Helmut Norpoth accurately predicts US elections using a method he has developed call the ‘Primary Model’. He looks at the % of vote each Presidential candidate received within their own respective political party during the Primary vote before the main election. According to Norpoth, Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in 2020. For the record, the Primary Model has picked the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912. You can read more about Professor Norpoths Primary Model here.
Of the forty five presidents who have held office, only ten presidents have failed to win re-election for a second term, IF they have attempted to run for a second term. Some may argue the recession changes these statistics for re-election of the incumbent president, but when you look more closely, the stats on re-election of a President who won an election (as opposed to being promoted from vice president to president), are actually closer to 50/50 during a pandemic, so there is no statistical bias to note.
Biased left media actually strengthens Trump’s support base and has the opposite effect to what is intended.
The Statistical Metrics:
The Social Metrics:
Using my own network as an initial example here. I have a business associate in the USA whom is a Trump supporter living in the swing state of Michigan. He will not put up a Trump 2020 sign or flag in the front yard and will not wear a MAGA hat and he won’t put a Trump/Pence bumper sticker on pick up truck. If a pollster calls, texts or emails him, he won’t reveal he is voting for Trump or just won’t respond at all. The reason he explains is due to most of the Democrats being so extremely hateful of Trump and his supporters, especially since the protesting and riots started, he says he risks being attacked and judged within his local community. My friend here is is not alone, with an estimated 25% of Trump supporters never revealing their political views to people they don’t know or trust. As I stated earlier, The Trafalgar Group pollsters understand this Shy Trump voter which is why they have developed a special process to determine if a person is voting for Trump, far different to almost every other pollster out there. If people aren’t telling pollsters they are voting for Trump, it’s no wonder the polls were skewed in 2016 and are be skewed again in 2020.
For those interested in the 2020 election from a from a financial markets / betting markets perspective, this article will outline why I believe Trump will win re-election in 2020 and retain the white house. Just like I did for the 2016 US election, I am going to be presenting some unique data and various perspectives on the 2020 US election that most people are usually afraid to share publicly or have not bothered to go out and find from alternative publications outside of the mainstream media outlets.
Readers might also remember I predicted three big events for 2020 in my Coronavirus article I posted in March 2020, two of which have come true so far, with one pending.
Social media engagement heavily favors Trump
Rasmussen, one of the the most accurate pollsters that predicted 2016 election result, is today showing 52% of Americans approve of Trump as president, a number that is equal to or higher than Obama was at going into his Final term as president in 2012. The presidential approval rating is tracked daily and is rapidly increasing in recent weeks.
Trump’s supporters and enthusiasm are completely unmatched.